Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
62%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho
Zorya Luhansk
7th · 15 pts2–1FULL TIME
Chornomorets
9th · 9 pts44% Zorya
30% Draw
27% Chornomorets
OUR PICK
Zorya Luhansk to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.28
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.87
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.28X3.3923.77
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.53
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.69
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.69
NG
59%
Double chance@1.36
1X
73%
Season stats
Zorya LuhanskChornomorets1.2Goals per game0.8
1.3Conceded per game1.2
1.50Points per game0.90
40%Win rate20%
-1Goal difference-4
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Zorya Luhansk form
DDWWWH Kryvbas KR1–1
A Shakhtar Donetsk0–0
H Chornomorets2–1
A Livyi Bereh1–3
A Kolos Kovalivka1–2
Chornomorets form
WDLLDA Veres Rivne1–3
H Karpaty0–0
A Zorya Luhansk2–1
H FC Kharkiv1–2
H Obolon'-Brovar1–1
Head to head
4
Zorya
0
Draw
1
Chornomorets
Oct 2026Zorya Luhansk – Chornomorets2–1
Aug 2025Chornomorets – Zorya Luhansk2–1
Dec 2024Zorya Luhansk – Chornomorets2–1
Aug 2024Chornomorets – Zorya Luhansk0–1
Apr 2024Zorya Luhansk – Chornomorets1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3FC Kharkiv9+1121
4Dynamo Kyiv9+519
5Karpaty10+916
6LNZ Cherkasy10+115
7Zorya Luhansk10-115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10-49
Match preview
Our model makes Zorya Luhansk slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.21 for Zorya Luhansk, 0.87 for Chornomorets), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Zorya Luhansk sit 7th on 15 points; Chornomorets are 9th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.