Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
CZECzech Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska
Zbrojovka Brno
8th · 20 pts0–1FULL TIME
FK Jablonec
7th · 20 pts46% Zbrojovka
25% Draw
29% FK
OUR PICK
Zbrojovka Brno to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.22
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X4.0723.45
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Zbrojovka BrnoFK Jablonec1.2Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.54Points per game1.54
46%Win rate46%
-3Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Zbrojovka Brno form
LLDWLA Sigma Olomouc3–0
A Slavia Praha4–0
H Bohemians 19052–2
A Slovácko1–2
H FK Jablonec0–1
FK Jablonec form
LWDLLH Slavia Praha0–5
A Hradec Králové1–2
H Brighton0–0
H Plzen2–3
A SC Freiburg3–2
Head to head
0
Zbrojovka
0
Draw
5
FK
Oct 2026Zbrojovka Brno – FK Jablonec0–1
May 2023FK Jablonec – Zbrojovka Brno1–0
Mar 2023Zbrojovka Brno – FK Jablonec1–2
Oct 2022FK Jablonec – Zbrojovka Brno3–1
Mar 2021Zbrojovka Brno – FK Jablonec1–2
Czech Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Slavia Praha13+2531
2Mlada Boleslav13+724
3Sigma Olomouc13+724
4Sparta Praha13+1223
5Slovan Liberec12+723
6Teplice13+321
7FK Jablonec13-220
8Zbrojovka Brno13-320
9Plzen13+719
10Bohemians 190512017
Match preview
Our model makes Zbrojovka Brno slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.61 for Zbrojovka Brno, 1.22 for FK Jablonec), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Zbrojovka Brno sit 8th on 20 points; FK Jablonec are 7th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.