Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · KGHM Zaglebie Arena
Zaglebie Lubin
5th · 22 pts1–0FULL TIME
Jagiellonia
9th · 18 pts44% Zaglebie
25% Draw
30% Jagiellonia
OUR PICK
Zaglebie Lubin to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.20
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X3.9423.31
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Zaglebie LubinJagiellonia1.2Goals per game1.4
1.2Conceded per game1.5
1.69Points per game1.50
46%Win rate50%
1Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Zaglebie Lubin form
WDWLWH Korona Kielce1–0
A Motor Lublin2–2
H Jagiellonia1–0
A Cracovia Krakow3–1
H Miedz Legnica1–0
Jagiellonia form
WWWLLA Wieczysta Kraków1–3
A Lechia Gdansk0–6
H Wisla Plock1–0
H Anderlecht0–3
A Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Head to head
3
Zaglebie
1
Draw
1
Jagiellonia
Oct 2026Zaglebie Lubin – Jagiellonia1–0
May 2026Jagiellonia – Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Nov 2025Zaglebie Lubin – Jagiellonia0–0
Jul 2025Jagiellonia – Zaglebie Lubin0–1
Apr 2025Jagiellonia – Zaglebie Lubin1–3
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Zaglebie Lubin slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.51 for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.20 for Jagiellonia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Zaglebie Lubin sit 5th on 22 points; Jagiellonia are 9th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.