Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
73%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · York Community Stadium
York
7th · 20 pts2–0FULL TIME
Port Vale
18th · 15 pts49% York
25% Draw
26% Port
OUR PICK
York to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.06X3.9423.85
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.94
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
51%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
YorkPort Vale1.7Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.43Points per game1.25
36%Win rate33%
3Goal difference-4
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
York form
LLWDDA Grimsby5–2
A Barnet3–1
H Port Vale2–0
H Accrington ST1–1
A Newport County1–1
Port Vale form
WWLDWH Rochdale4–2
H Manchester City U215–0
A York2–0
A Gillingham1–1
H Chesterfield1–0
Head to head
1
York
1
Draw
1
Port
Oct 2026York – Port Vale2–0
Mar 2013York – Port Vale0–2
Nov 2012Port Vale – York2–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes York slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.55 for York, 1.06 for Port Vale), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
York sit 7th on 20 points; Port Vale are 18th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.