Over 1.5 goals@1.60
Over 1.5
63%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · York Community Stadium
York
7th · 20 pts1–1FULL TIME
Northampton
20th · 14 pts45% York
29% Draw
26% Northampton
OUR PICK
York to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.88
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.24X3.4323.80
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.55
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.71
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.71
NG
58%
Double chance@1.36
1X
74%
Season stats
YorkNorthampton1.7Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game0.8
1.43Points per game1.17
36%Win rate25%
3Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
York form
LLWDDA Grimsby5–2
A Barnet3–1
H Port Vale2–0
H Accrington ST1–1
A Newport County1–1
Northampton form
DWLWDA Accrington ST1–1
H Colchester2–0
H Tranmere0–1
A Grimsby0–2
A York1–1
Head to head
0
York
2
Draw
3
Northampton
Oct 2026York – Northampton1–1
Feb 2016York – Northampton1–2
Feb 2016Northampton – York2–0
Feb 2015Northampton – York3–0
Aug 2014York – Northampton1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes York slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.24 for York, 0.88 for Northampton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
York sit 7th on 20 points; Northampton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.