Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Japan National Stadium
Yokohama F. Marinos
8th · 21 pts2–2FULL TIME
Tokyo Verdy
17th · 11 pts66% Yokohama
22% Draw
12% Tokyo
OUR PICK
Yokohama F. Marinos to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.52
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.63
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.52X4.6028.17
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
Yokohama F. MarinosTokyo Verdy1.5Goals per game0.8
1.1Conceded per game1.7
1.62Points per game0.85
38%Win rate15%
6Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Yokohama F. Marinos form
WWDDDH Kawasaki Frontale4–2
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–3
A Nagoya Grampus1–1
H Tokyo Verdy2–2
A JEF United Chiba0–0
Tokyo Verdy form
WWDLLA V-varen Nagasaki1–2
H Avispa Fukuoka3–1
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–2
H FC Tokyo0–4
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2
Head to head
2
Yokohama
2
Draw
1
Tokyo
Oct 2026Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy2–2
May 2026Tokyo Verdy – Yokohama F. Marinos0–6
Feb 2026Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy3–2
Aug 2025Tokyo Verdy – Yokohama F. Marinos1–0
Apr 2025Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy0–0
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Yokohama F. Marinos clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.82 for Yokohama F. Marinos, 0.63 for Tokyo Verdy), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Yokohama F. Marinos sit 8th on 21 points; Tokyo Verdy are 17th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.