Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Adams Park
Wycombe
13th · 18 pts2–0FULL TIME
Notts County
17th · 14 pts38% Wycombe
25% Draw
37% Notts
OUR PICK
Wycombe to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.41
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.62X4.0022.72
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
WycombeNotts County1.6Goals per game1.1
1.8Conceded per game1.2
1.38Points per game1.17
31%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference-1
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Wycombe form
WDDWLH Burton Albion2–0
A AFC Wimbledon1–1
A Cambridge United2–2
H Notts County2–0
H Luton1–4
Notts County form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Wycombe
0
Draw
0
Notts
These sides haven't met recently.
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Wycombe 38%, the draw 25%, Notts County 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.44 for Wycombe, 1.41 for Notts County), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wycombe sit 13th on 18 points; Notts County are 17th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.