ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Adams Park

Wycombe

13th · 18 pts

1–4FULL TIME

Luton

4th · 23 pts

45% Wycombe

22% Draw

34% Luton

OUR PICK

Wycombe to win

Model probability 45% · fair odds

2.23

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.68

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.23X4.6222.98

Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14

Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.14

Over 1.5

88%

Over/Under 2.5@1.42

Over 2.5

70%

Both teams to score@1.43

70%

Double chance@1.28

78%

Season stats

WycombeLuton

1.6Goals per game2.0

1.8Conceded per game1.5

1.38Points per game1.77

31%Win rate54%

-2Goal difference6

8Form, last 5 (pts)12

Wycombe form

WDDWL

H Burton Albion2–0

A AFC Wimbledon1–1

A Cambridge United2–2

H Notts County2–0

H Luton1–4

Luton form

WWWWL

A Peterborough0–2

H Doncaster3–1

H Leicester2–1

H Barnsley2–1

A Milton Keynes Dons2–1

Head to head

Wycombe

Draw

Luton

Oct 2026Wycombe – Luton1–4

Mar 2026Wycombe – Luton1–2

Dec 2025Luton – Wycombe4–0

Apr 2021Wycombe – Luton1–3

Oct 2020Luton – Wycombe2–0

League One table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Huddersfield13+1628

2Stockport County14+1226

3Oxford United12+923

4Luton13+623

5Plymouth14+223

6Reading13+1222

7Bradford13+222

8Cambridge United14021

9Sheffield Wednesday13+820

10Leicester13+319

Match preview

Our model makes Wycombe slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.96 for Wycombe, 1.68 for Luton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Wycombe sit 13th on 18 points; Luton are 4th on 23.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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