Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Molineux Stadium
Wolves
3rd · 24 pts1–0FULL TIME
Watford
21st · 11 pts68% Wolves
18% Draw
14% Watford
OUR PICK
Wolves to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.93
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.46X5.5427.37
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
WolvesWatford1.8Goals per game0.9
1.2Conceded per game1.8
1.85Points per game0.85
54%Win rate23%
7Goal difference-11
10Form, last 5 (pts)3
Wolves form
WWDWLH Cardiff3–0
H Watford1–0
H Portsmouth1–1
A Burnley1–2
H Bolton1–3
Watford form
LLWLLA Norwich3–2
A Wolves1–0
H Charlton2–0
A Cardiff5–1
H Burnley0–4
Head to head
4
Wolves
0
Draw
1
Watford
Oct 2026Wolves – Watford1–0
Mar 2022Wolves – Watford4–0
Sept 2021Watford – Wolves0–2
Jan 2020Watford – Wolves2–1
Sept 2019Wolves – Watford2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Wolves clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.32 for Wolves, 0.93 for Watford), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wolves sit 3rd on 24 points; Watford are 21st on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.