Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 6Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Molineux Stadium
Wolves
3rd · 24 pts1–1FULL TIME
Portsmouth
11th · 19 pts52% Wolves
25% Draw
24% Portsmouth
OUR PICK
Wolves to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.04
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.94X4.0824.18
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.31
1X
76%
Season stats
WolvesPortsmouth1.8Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.85Points per game1.46
54%Win rate38%
7Goal difference1
10Form, last 5 (pts)11
Wolves form
WWDWLH Cardiff3–0
H Watford1–0
H Portsmouth1–1
A Burnley1–2
H Bolton1–3
Portsmouth form
DWDWWA Burnley0–0
H Millwall2–1
A Wolves1–1
A Norwich0–1
H Sheffield Utd3–2
Head to head
0
Wolves
1
Draw
0
Portsmouth
Oct 2026Wolves – Portsmouth1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Wolves slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.65 for Wolves, 1.04 for Portsmouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wolves sit 3rd on 24 points; Portsmouth are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.