Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Friday, 6 November 2026 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II
18th · 2 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
PEC Zwolle
14th · 11 pts29% Willem
22% Draw
49% PEC
OUR PICK
PEC Zwolle to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.90
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.49X4.4822.04
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Willem IIPEC Zwolle0.9Goals per game1.1
3.5Conceded per game2.1
0.18Points per game1.00
0%Win rate27%
-29Goal difference-11
0Form, last 5 (pts)7
Willem II form
LWLLLA PSV Eindhoven7–0
A Helmond Sport3–4
H Cambuur1–6
A Sparta Rotterdam3–2
A Utrecht3–1
PEC Zwolle form
WLDWLH ADO Den Haag1–0
H FC OSS1–2
A Utrecht1–1
H GO Ahead Eagles4–1
H Cambuur0–1
Head to head
1
Willem
1
Draw
3
PEC
May 2025Willem II – PEC Zwolle1–2
Dec 2024PEC Zwolle – Willem II0–1
Mar 2023Willem II – PEC Zwolle2–3
Sept 2022PEC Zwolle – Willem II2–2
Jan 2022PEC Zwolle – Willem II2–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes PEC Zwolle slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.41 for Willem II, 1.90 for PEC Zwolle), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Willem II sit 18th on 2 points; PEC Zwolle are 14th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.