Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II
18th · 2 pts1–6FULL TIME
Cambuur
9th · 15 pts22% Willem
19% Draw
59% Cambuur
OUR PICK
Cambuur to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.43 – 2.39
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.51X5.2121.70
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
Willem IICambuur0.9Goals per game2.1
3.5Conceded per game2.0
0.18Points per game1.36
0%Win rate36%
-29Goal difference1
0Form, last 5 (pts)11
Willem II form
LWLLLA PSV Eindhoven7–0
A Helmond Sport3–4
H Cambuur1–6
A Sparta Rotterdam3–2
A Utrecht3–1
Cambuur form
WWWDWH GO Ahead Eagles4–0
A Kloetinge0–2
A Willem II1–6
H AZ Alkmaar2–2
A PEC Zwolle0–1
Head to head
0
Willem
2
Draw
3
Cambuur
Oct 2026Willem II – Cambuur1–6
Dec 2025Willem II – Cambuur0–1
Sept 2025Cambuur – Willem II2–2
Feb 2024Willem II – Cambuur1–1
Sept 2023Cambuur – Willem II1–0
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Cambuur clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.43 for Willem II, 2.39 for Cambuur), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Willem II sit 18th on 2 points; Cambuur are 9th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.