Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · DW Stadium
Wigan
21st · 10 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Mansfield Town
12th · 18 pts27% Wigan
24% Draw
49% Mansfield
OUR PICK
Mansfield Town to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.65
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.76X4.1022.04
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
WiganMansfield Town0.8Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game1.5
0.77Points per game1.50
23%Win rate42%
-11Goal difference2
6Form, last 5 (pts)10
Wigan form
WLLLWH Bromley3–2
A Leicester3–0
A Huddersfield2–1
A Oxford United2–1
H Reading1–0
Mansfield Town form
LWWDWH Notts County0–2
A Blackpool1–4
A AFC Wimbledon0–3
H Oxford United1–1
H Bromley2–1
Head to head
2
Wigan
2
Draw
1
Mansfield
Apr 2026Wigan – Mansfield Town2–1
Oct 2025Mansfield Town – Wigan1–1
Mar 2025Mansfield Town – Wigan0–0
Jan 2025Mansfield Town – Wigan0–2
Oct 2024Wigan – Mansfield Town1–2
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Mansfield Town slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.15 for Wigan, 1.65 for Mansfield Town), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wigan sit 21st on 10 points; Mansfield Town are 12th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.