Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · London Stadium
West Ham
8th · 22 pts2–3FULL TIME
Southampton
5th · 23 pts46% West
22% Draw
32% Southampton
OUR PICK
West Ham to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.19
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.19X4.4623.13
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
West HamSouthampton2.5Goals per game2.2
1.4Conceded per game1.0
1.69Points per game1.77
46%Win rate62%
15Goal difference15
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
West Ham form
LLWWDH West Brom1–3
H Southampton2–3
A Swansea0–1
A Lincoln0–6
H QPR1–1
Southampton form
WWDWWH QPR4–1
A West Ham2–3
H Bolton0–0
A Norwich0–1
H Portsmouth1–0
Head to head
3
West
1
Draw
1
Southampton
Oct 2026West Ham – Southampton2–3
Aug 2026Southampton – West Ham1–4
Apr 2025West Ham – Southampton1–1
Dec 2024Southampton – West Ham0–1
Apr 2023West Ham – Southampton1–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes West Ham slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.86 for West Ham, 1.53 for Southampton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
West Ham sit 8th on 22 points; Southampton are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.