Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Friday, 9 October 2026 · London Stadium
West Ham
8th · 22 pts1–1FULL TIME
QPR
9th · 20 pts59% West
19% Draw
22% QPR
OUR PICK
West Ham to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
2.36 – 1.41
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X5.1724.52
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.46NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.46
GG
68%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
West HamQPR2.5Goals per game1.6
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.69Points per game1.54
46%Win rate38%
15Goal difference5
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
West Ham form
LLWWDH West Brom1–3
H Southampton2–3
A Swansea0–1
A Lincoln0–6
H QPR1–1
QPR form
LWLWDA Southampton4–1
H Swansea5–0
A Birmingham3–0
H Derby4–1
A West Ham1–1
Head to head
2
West
3
Draw
0
QPR
Oct 2026West Ham – QPR1–1
Jan 2026West Ham – QPR2–1
Apr 2015QPR – West Ham0–0
Oct 2014West Ham – QPR2–0
Jan 2013West Ham – QPR1–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes West Ham clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.36 for West Ham, 1.41 for QPR), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
West Ham sit 8th on 22 points; QPR are 9th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.