Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · The Hawthorns
West Brom
4th · 24 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Southampton
5th · 23 pts33% West
26% Draw
41% Southampton
OUR PICK
Southampton to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.04X3.8622.43
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
West BromSouthampton1.5Goals per game2.2
1.1Conceded per game1.0
1.85Points per game1.77
54%Win rate62%
5Goal difference15
10Form, last 5 (pts)13
West Brom form
WDWWLA West Ham1–3
A Preston1–1
H Blackburn3–2
A Wrexham1–2
H Birmingham0–1
Southampton form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
West
2
Draw
3
Southampton
Mar 2026West Brom – Southampton1–1
Dec 2025Southampton – West Brom3–2
May 2024Southampton – West Brom3–1
May 2024West Brom – Southampton0–0
Feb 2024West Brom – Southampton0–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: West Brom 33%, the draw 26%, Southampton 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.24 for West Brom, 1.42 for Southampton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
West Brom sit 4th on 24 points; Southampton are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.