Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · The Hawthorns
West Brom
4th · 24 pts3–2FULL TIME
Blackburn
13th · 18 pts49% West
26% Draw
25% Blackburn
OUR PICK
West Brom to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.97
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X3.8324.06
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
West BromBlackburn1.5Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.5
1.85Points per game1.38
54%Win rate38%
5Goal difference-1
10Form, last 5 (pts)9
West Brom form
WDWWLA West Ham1–3
A Preston1–1
H Blackburn3–2
A Wrexham1–2
H Birmingham0–1
Blackburn form
LWLWWA Swansea4–0
H Wrexham2–0
A West Brom3–2
A Bristol City0–1
H Cardiff2–1
Head to head
2
West
2
Draw
1
Blackburn
Oct 2026West Brom – Blackburn3–2
Apr 2026Blackburn – West Brom0–0
Aug 2025West Brom – Blackburn1–0
Feb 2025West Brom – Blackburn0–2
Oct 2024Blackburn – West Brom0–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes West Brom slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.49 for West Brom, 0.97 for Blackburn), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
West Brom sit 4th on 24 points; Blackburn are 13th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.