Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 10 October 2026 · The Hawthorns
West Brom
4th · 24 pts0–1FULL TIME
Birmingham
6th · 23 pts40% West
26% Draw
34% Birmingham
OUR PICK
West Brom to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.47X3.8422.98
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.98
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
West BromBirmingham1.5Goals per game1.8
1.1Conceded per game1.0
1.85Points per game1.77
54%Win rate46%
5Goal difference10
10Form, last 5 (pts)12
West Brom form
WDWWLA West Ham1–3
A Preston1–1
H Blackburn3–2
A Wrexham1–2
H Birmingham0–1
Birmingham form
WLWWWA Lincoln1–3
A Cardiff1–0
H QPR3–0
H Preston4–0
A West Brom0–1
Head to head
1
West
2
Draw
2
Birmingham
Oct 2026West Brom – Birmingham0–1
Feb 2026Birmingham – West Brom0–0
Nov 2025West Brom – Birmingham1–1
Aug 2024Birmingham – West Brom4–1
Feb 2024West Brom – Birmingham1–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: West Brom 40%, the draw 26%, Birmingham 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.40 for West Brom, 1.25 for Birmingham), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
West Brom sit 4th on 24 points; Birmingham are 6th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.