Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Weser-Stadion
Werder Bremen
5th · 15 pts2–2FULL TIME
SC Paderborn 07
14th · 9 pts55% Werder
25% Draw
20% SC
OUR PICK
Werder Bremen to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.88
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X4.0524.94
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.89
NG
53%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 072.1Goals per game0.8
1.8Conceded per game1.1
1.88Points per game1.13
50%Win rate25%
3Goal difference-3
11Form, last 5 (pts)8
Werder Bremen form
WLWDDH 1899 Hoffenheim2–0
A Borussia Dortmund3–2
A FSV Mainz 052–3
H SC Paderborn 072–2
A Borussia Dortmund2–2
SC Paderborn 07 form
DLWDLA Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0
H VfB Stuttgart0–1
H Hamburger SV1–0
A Werder Bremen2–2
H VfB Stuttgart0–2
Head to head
2
Werder
3
Draw
0
SC
Oct 2026Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 072–2
Aug 2026Werder Bremen – SC Paderborn 072–2
Oct 2024SC Paderborn 07 – Werder Bremen0–1
Oct 2022SC Paderborn 07 – Werder Bremen2–2
Jan 2022SC Paderborn 07 – Werder Bremen3–4
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Werder Bremen clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.63 for Werder Bremen, 0.88 for SC Paderborn 07), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Werder Bremen sit 5th on 15 points; SC Paderborn 07 are 14th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.