Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
AUSA-League · Matchday 1Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Hnry Stadium
Wellington Phoenix
1st · 9 pts2–1FULL TIME
Melbourne Victory
9th · 2 pts62% Wellington
23% Draw
15% Melbourne
OUR PICK
Wellington Phoenix to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X4.4026.53
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
Wellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory2.3Goals per game1.0
0.3Conceded per game1.3
3.00Points per game0.67
100%Win rate0%
6Goal difference-1
9Form, last 5 (pts)2
Wellington Phoenix form
WWWLWA Newcastle Jets0–3
H Central Coast Mariners2–0
H Melbourne Victory2–1
A Macarthur4–0
H Western Sydney Wanderers2–1
Melbourne Victory form
DLDLWH Central Coast Mariners1–1
A Persib Bandung2–0
H Melbourne City1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–1
H FC Seoul3–0
Head to head
2
Wellington
0
Draw
3
Melbourne
Oct 2026Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory2–1
Apr 2026Melbourne Victory – Wellington Phoenix0–1
Feb 2026Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory2–3
Dec 2025Melbourne Victory – Wellington Phoenix5–1
Apr 2025Wellington Phoenix – Melbourne Victory2–3
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Wellington Phoenix clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.78 for Wellington Phoenix, 0.75 for Melbourne Victory), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 9 points; Melbourne Victory are 9th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.