Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
AUSA-League · Matchday 2Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Hnry Stadium
Wellington Phoenix
1st · 9 pts2–0FULL TIME
Central Coast Mariners
10th · 2 pts61% Wellington
21% Draw
18% Central
OUR PICK
Wellington Phoenix to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.00
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X4.7625.54
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
Wellington PhoenixCentral Coast Mariners2.3Goals per game1.0
0.3Conceded per game1.7
3.00Points per game0.67
100%Win rate0%
6Goal difference-2
9Form, last 5 (pts)2
Wellington Phoenix form
WWWLWA Newcastle Jets0–3
H Central Coast Mariners2–0
H Melbourne Victory2–1
A Macarthur4–0
H Western Sydney Wanderers2–1
Central Coast Mariners form
DLDLLA Melbourne Victory1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–0
H Newcastle Jets2–2
A Western Sydney Wanderers5–1
A Vanuatu United1–0
Head to head
3
Wellington
2
Draw
0
Central
Oct 2026Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners2–0
Dec 2025Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners3–1
Nov 2025Central Coast Mariners – Wellington Phoenix1–1
Jan 2025Wellington Phoenix – Central Coast Mariners0–0
Nov 2024Central Coast Mariners – Wellington Phoenix0–3
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Wellington Phoenix clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.02 for Wellington Phoenix, 1.00 for Central Coast Mariners), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 9 points; Central Coast Mariners are 10th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.