Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 14Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Vicarage Road
Watford
21st · 11 pts20:45KICK-OFF WAT
Lincoln
16th · 15 pts40% Watford
26% Draw
33% Lincoln
OUR PICK
Watford to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.48X3.7823.01
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
WatfordLincoln0.9Goals per game1.1
1.8Conceded per game1.8
0.85Points per game1.15
23%Win rate31%
-11Goal difference-9
3Form, last 5 (pts)4
Watford form
LLWLLA Norwich3–2
A Wolves1–0
H Charlton2–0
A Cardiff5–1
H Burnley0–4
Lincoln form
LWDLLH Birmingham1–3
H Burnley4–1
A Millwall2–2
H West Ham0–6
A Sheffield Utd3–0
Head to head
0
Watford
0
Draw
0
Lincoln
These sides haven't met recently.
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Watford 40%, the draw 26%, Lincoln 33%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.36 for Watford, 1.21 for Lincoln), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Watford sit 21st on 11 points; Lincoln are 16th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.