Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Vicarage Road
Watford
21st · 11 pts2–0FULL TIME
Charlton
20th · 14 pts36% Watford
28% Draw
35% Charlton
OUR PICK
Watford to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.74
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.16
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X3.5622.82
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
WatfordCharlton0.9Goals per game0.8
1.8Conceded per game1.6
0.85Points per game1.08
23%Win rate23%
-11Goal difference-10
3Form, last 5 (pts)2
Watford form
LLWLLA Norwich3–2
A Wolves1–0
H Charlton2–0
A Cardiff5–1
H Burnley0–4
Charlton form
LLLDDA Middlesbrough3–0
H Norwich1–3
A Watford2–0
A Burnley2–2
H Bristol City1–1
Head to head
2
Watford
1
Draw
2
Charlton
Oct 2026Watford – Charlton2–0
Apr 2026Watford – Charlton1–1
Aug 2025Charlton – Watford1–0
Jan 2015Watford – Charlton5–0
Sept 2014Charlton – Watford1–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Watford 36%, the draw 28%, Charlton 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.18 for Watford, 1.16 for Charlton), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Watford sit 21st on 11 points; Charlton are 20th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.