URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera

Wanderers

7th · 51 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Progreso

15th · 35 pts

56% Wanderers

25% Draw

20% Progreso

OUR PICK

Wanderers to win

Model probability 56% · fair odds

1.80

Expected goals

1.64 – 0.87

Confidence

Medium

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.80X4.0725.03

Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85

Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.40

Over 1.5

71%

Over/Under 2.5@1.85

Under 2.5

54%

Both teams to score@1.88

53%

Double chance@1.25

80%

Season stats

WanderersProgreso

1.2Goals per game0.9

1.3Conceded per game1.4

1.46Points per game1.00

40%Win rate29%

-2Goal difference-18

4Form, last 5 (pts)7

Wanderers form

DLLLD

A Penarol1–1

H Progreso0–1

A Racing Montevideo3–0

H Boston River1–3

A Cerrito2–2

Progreso form

LWWDL

H Defensor Sporting0–2

A Wanderers0–1

H Juventud2–0

A Penarol1–1

A Liverpool Montevideo3–2

Head to head

Wanderers

Draw

Progreso

Oct 2026Wanderers – Progreso0–1

Jul 2026Wanderers – Progreso2–0

Apr 2026Progreso – Wanderers2–1

Sept 2025Progreso – Wanderers2–0

Mar 2025Wanderers – Progreso1–1

Primera División table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Penarol35+2465

2Atletico Torque35+1863

3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262

4Club Nacional35+1161

5Racing Montevideo35+1460

6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456

7Wanderers35-251

8Albion FC34+346

9Juventud34-441

10Central Espanol35-1341

Match preview

Our model makes Wanderers clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.64 for Wanderers, 0.87 for Progreso), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Wanderers sit 7th on 51 points; Progreso are 15th on 35.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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