Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera
Wanderers
7th · 51 pts1–3FULL TIME
Boston River
13th · 37 pts53% Wanderers
26% Draw
21% Boston
OUR PICK
Wanderers to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.85
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X3.8624.76
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.73
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.27
1X
79%
Season stats
WanderersBoston River1.2Goals per game1.0
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.46Points per game1.06
40%Win rate29%
-2Goal difference-13
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Wanderers form
DLLLDA Penarol1–1
H Progreso0–1
A Racing Montevideo3–0
H Boston River1–3
A Cerrito2–2
Boston River form
LLWDWH Atletico Torque1–2
A Cerro Largo2–0
H Defensor Sporting1–0
H CA River Plate0–0
A Wanderers1–3
Head to head
0
Wanderers
1
Draw
4
Boston
Oct 2026Wanderers – Boston River1–3
Apr 2026Boston River – Wanderers4–1
Oct 2025Wanderers – Boston River2–2
May 2025Boston River – Wanderers1–0
Oct 2024Boston River – Wanderers3–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado35+2263
3Atletico Torque35+1863
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC35+347
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Wanderers clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.52 for Wanderers, 0.85 for Boston River), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Wanderers sit 7th on 51 points; Boston River are 13th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.