Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Mandemakers Stadion
Waalwijk
13th · 16 pts1–1FULL TIME
FC Volendam
7th · 19 pts42% Waalwijk
22% Draw
36% FC
OUR PICK
Waalwijk to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.36
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.77
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.36X4.6422.78
Goals 2.5Over1.40Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.41NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.40
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.41
GG
71%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
WaalwijkFC Volendam1.7Goals per game2.3
1.5Conceded per game1.7
1.23Points per game1.46
23%Win rate46%
3Goal difference8
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Waalwijk form
LDDDLH Almere City FC1–2
A Barendrecht2–2
A De Graafschap1–1
H FC Volendam1–1
A Heracles3–0
FC Volendam form
LLWDWH De Graafschap1–2
A FC Eindhoven5–3
H Jong Utrecht6–2
A Waalwijk1–1
H Vitesse2–0
Head to head
2
Waalwijk
2
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026Waalwijk – FC Volendam1–1
Jul 2026Waalwijk – FC Volendam2–2
Apr 2024FC Volendam – Waalwijk3–2
Oct 2023Waalwijk – FC Volendam2–1
May 2023Waalwijk – FC Volendam4–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Waalwijk 42%, the draw 22%, FC Volendam 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.93 for Waalwijk, 1.77 for FC Volendam), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Waalwijk sit 13th on 16 points; FC Volendam are 7th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.