Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Mandemakers Stadion
Waalwijk
13th · 16 pts1–1FULL TIME
Emmen
5th · 25 pts49% Waalwijk
21% Draw
29% Emmen
OUR PICK
Waalwijk to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
2.07 – 1.57
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X4.7223.40
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
WaalwijkEmmen1.7Goals per game2.0
1.5Conceded per game1.8
1.23Points per game1.92
23%Win rate62%
3Goal difference2
3Form, last 5 (pts)10
Waalwijk form
LDDDLH Almere City FC1–2
A Barendrecht2–2
A De Graafschap1–1
H FC Volendam1–1
A Heracles3–0
Emmen form
LWWWWH Den Bosch0–5
A Groningen0–2
A Vitesse0–2
H Almere City FC2–1
A Dordrecht0–3
Head to head
2
Waalwijk
3
Draw
0
Emmen
Oct 2026Waalwijk – Emmen1–1
Apr 2026Waalwijk – Emmen5–0
Nov 2025Emmen – Waalwijk2–2
Jan 2023Waalwijk – Emmen2–0
Aug 2022Emmen – Waalwijk1–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Waalwijk slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.07 for Waalwijk, 1.57 for Emmen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Waalwijk sit 13th on 16 points; Emmen are 5th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.