Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Mandemakers Stadion
Waalwijk
12th · 16 pts1–2FULL TIME
Almere City FC
4th · 25 pts33% Waalwijk
25% Draw
42% Almere
OUR PICK
Almere City FC to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.39
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.51
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.01X4.0022.39
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
WaalwijkAlmere City FC1.7Goals per game2.1
1.5Conceded per game1.0
1.23Points per game1.92
23%Win rate62%
3Goal difference14
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Waalwijk form
LDDDLH Almere City FC1–2
A Barendrecht2–2
A De Graafschap1–1
H FC Volendam1–1
A Heracles3–0
Almere City FC form
WWLLWA Waalwijk1–2
A Telstar0–2
H Roda2–3
A Emmen2–1
H FC Eindhoven3–0
Head to head
3
Waalwijk
1
Draw
1
Almere
Oct 2026Waalwijk – Almere City FC1–2
Mar 2026Almere City FC – Waalwijk2–2
Aug 2025Waalwijk – Almere City FC2–0
Feb 2025Almere City FC – Waalwijk1–4
Nov 2024Waalwijk – Almere City FC2–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Emmen12+725
4Almere City FC13+1425
5Roda13+525
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Vitesse12-117
9Jong AZ13+417
10MVV13-1217
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Waalwijk 33%, the draw 25%, Almere City FC 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.32 for Waalwijk, 1.51 for Almere City FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Waalwijk sit 12th on 16 points; Almere City FC are 4th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.