Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Seacon Stadion De Koel
VVV Venlo
2nd · 28 pts2–0FULL TIME
Roda
4th · 25 pts47% VVV
24% Draw
30% Roda
OUR PICK
VVV Venlo to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.13
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.13X4.2523.38
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
VVV VenloRoda2.8Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game0.9
2.15Points per game1.92
69%Win rate54%
15Goal difference5
13Form, last 5 (pts)10
VVV Venlo form
WLWDWA MVV1–2
H Vitesse0–2
A Dordrecht2–4
H Jong AZ4–4
A Jong Ajax0–3
Roda form
WWWWDH Jong AZ2–1
H De Graafschap1–0
A Almere City FC2–3
A Jong Utrecht1–2
H Jong PSV U211–1
Head to head
3
VVV
2
Draw
0
Roda
Oct 2026VVV Venlo – Roda2–0
Jan 2026Roda – VVV Venlo2–2
Aug 2025VVV Venlo – Roda3–1
Mar 2025Roda – VVV Venlo1–4
Aug 2024VVV Venlo – Roda1–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes VVV Venlo slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.13 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.73 for VVV Venlo, 1.33 for Roda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
VVV Venlo sit 2nd on 28 points; Roda are 4th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.