Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
95%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 11Friday, 16 October 2026 · Seacon Stadion De Koel
VVV Venlo
2nd · 28 pts4–4FULL TIME
Jong AZ
10th · 17 pts64% VVV
16% Draw
19% Jong
OUR PICK
VVV Venlo to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.55
Expected goals
2.99 – 1.66
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.55X6.1525.15
Goals 2.5Over1.19Under5.90
Both scoreGG1.30NG4.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Over 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.30
GG
77%
Double chance@1.19
12
84%
Season stats
VVV VenloJong AZ2.8Goals per game2.5
1.6Conceded per game2.2
2.15Points per game1.31
69%Win rate38%
15Goal difference4
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
VVV Venlo form
WLWDWA MVV1–2
H Vitesse0–2
A Dordrecht2–4
H Jong AZ4–4
A Jong Ajax0–3
Jong AZ form
LWDLWA Roda2–1
H Helmond Sport5–4
A VVV Venlo4–4
H Den Bosch0–1
H FC Volendam4–1
Head to head
1
VVV
1
Draw
3
Jong
Oct 2026VVV Venlo – Jong AZ4–4
Jan 2026VVV Venlo – Jong AZ1–3
Nov 2025Jong AZ – VVV Venlo0–2
Feb 2025Jong AZ – VVV Venlo3–0
Nov 2024VVV Venlo – Jong AZ0–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes VVV Venlo clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.55 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.7 goals in total (2.99 for VVV Venlo, 1.66 for Jong AZ), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
VVV Venlo sit 2nd on 28 points; Jong AZ are 10th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.