Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Friday, 6 November 2026 · Barradao
Vitoria
14th · 38 pts00:00KICK-OFF WAT
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts30% Vitoria
26% Draw
45% Fluminense
OUR PICK
Fluminense to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.23
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.50
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.38X3.9122.23
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
VitoriaFluminense1.1Goals per game1.6
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.15Points per game1.64
30%Win rate45%
-13Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Vitoria form
LDDLWA Coritiba2–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–1
A Corinthians1–1
A Sao Paulo2–1
H Chapecoense-sc4–0
Fluminense form
WLWLLH Internacional2–1
A Chapecoense-sc2–1
A Palmeiras0–1
H Santos1–2
H Palmeiras1–2
Head to head
2
Vitoria
2
Draw
1
Fluminense
May 2026Fluminense – Vitoria2–2
Sept 2025Vitoria – Fluminense0–1
Apr 2025Fluminense – Vitoria1–1
Oct 2024Vitoria – Fluminense2–1
Jun 2024Fluminense – Vitoria0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Fluminense slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.23 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.17 for Vitoria, 1.50 for Fluminense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitoria sit 14th on 38 points; Fluminense are 4th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.