Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Barradao
Vitoria
14th · 38 pts4–0FULL TIME
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts51% Vitoria
25% Draw
25% Chapecoense-sc
OUR PICK
Vitoria to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.06
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.98X4.0524.05
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
VitoriaChapecoense-sc1.1Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game2.1
1.15Points per game0.66
30%Win rate13%
-13Goal difference-34
5Form, last 5 (pts)3
Vitoria form
LDDLWA Coritiba2–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–1
A Corinthians1–1
A Sao Paulo2–1
H Chapecoense-sc4–0
Chapecoense-sc form
LWLLLA RB Bragantino3–0
H Fluminense2–1
A Botafogo1–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–4
A Vitoria4–0
Head to head
2
Vitoria
2
Draw
1
Chapecoense-sc
Oct 2026Vitoria – Chapecoense-sc4–0
Apr 2026Chapecoense-sc – Vitoria1–1
Nov 2023Chapecoense-sc – Vitoria3–1
Jul 2023Vitoria – Chapecoense-sc1–0
Jan 2021Vitoria – Chapecoense-sc0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Vitoria slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.63 for Vitoria, 1.06 for Chapecoense-sc), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitoria sit 14th on 38 points; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.