Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Barradao
Vitoria
14th · 38 pts1–1FULL TIME
Atletico Paranaense
5th · 54 pts29% Vitoria
26% Draw
45% Atletico
OUR PICK
Atletico Paranaense to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.47
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.44X3.8522.22
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
VitoriaAtletico Paranaense1.1Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.15Points per game1.64
30%Win rate45%
-13Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Vitoria form
LDDLWA Coritiba2–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–1
A Corinthians1–1
A Sao Paulo2–1
H Chapecoense-sc4–0
Atletico Paranaense form
LDLWDA Gremio2–0
A Vitoria1–1
H Palmeiras0–2
A Chapecoense-sc1–4
H Atletico-MG2–2
Head to head
2
Vitoria
1
Draw
2
Atletico
Oct 2026Vitoria – Atletico Paranaense1–1
Aug 2026Vitoria – Atletico Paranaense4–0
Aug 2026Atletico Paranaense – Vitoria2–0
Apr 2026Atletico Paranaense – Vitoria3–1
Nov 2024Atletico Paranaense – Vitoria1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Atletico Paranaense slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.13 for Vitoria, 1.47 for Atletico Paranaense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitoria sit 14th on 38 points; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.