Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · GelreDome
Vitesse
9th · 18 pts2–2FULL TIME
NAC Breda
6th · 24 pts37% Vitesse
26% Draw
37% NAC
OUR PICK
Vitesse to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.69
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.69X3.8922.69
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
VitesseNAC Breda1.3Goals per game1.9
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.38Points per game1.85
38%Win rate54%
-1Goal difference5
5Form, last 5 (pts)11
Vitesse form
DWLWLA Jong Ajax1–1
A VVV Venlo0–2
H Emmen0–2
A FC Eindhoven0–1
A FC Volendam2–0
NAC Breda form
WWDWWA Jong PSV U210–2
A JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3
H Heracles1–1
A Helmond Sport0–2
H MVV1–0
Head to head
2
Vitesse
1
Draw
2
NAC
Oct 2026Vitesse – NAC Breda2–2
Mar 2019Vitesse – NAC Breda4–1
Dec 2018NAC Breda – Vitesse2–1
Apr 2018NAC Breda – Vitesse1–0
Aug 2017Vitesse – NAC Breda4–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Vitesse 37%, the draw 26%, NAC Breda 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.36 for Vitesse, 1.36 for NAC Breda), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitesse sit 9th on 18 points; NAC Breda are 6th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.