Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · GelreDome
Vitesse
9th · 17 pts0–2FULL TIME
Emmen
5th · 25 pts48% Vitesse
23% Draw
30% Emmen
OUR PICK
Vitesse to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.41
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X4.4123.38
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.57NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.57
GG
64%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
VitesseEmmen1.3Goals per game2.0
1.4Conceded per game1.8
1.42Points per game1.92
42%Win rate62%
-1Goal difference2
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Vitesse form
WLWLDA VVV Venlo0–2
H Emmen0–2
A FC Eindhoven0–1
A FC Volendam2–0
H NAC Breda2–2
Emmen form
LWWWWH Den Bosch0–5
A Groningen0–2
A Vitesse0–2
H Almere City FC2–1
A Dordrecht0–3
Head to head
2
Vitesse
2
Draw
1
Emmen
Oct 2026Vitesse – Emmen0–2
Apr 2026Vitesse – Emmen3–3
Sept 2025Emmen – Vitesse2–4
Feb 2025Vitesse – Emmen2–0
Sept 2024Emmen – Vitesse3–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Vitesse slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.84 for Vitesse, 1.41 for Emmen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitesse sit 9th on 17 points; Emmen are 5th on 25.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.