Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 14Sunday, 8 November 2026 · GelreDome
Vitesse
9th · 18 pts12:15KICK-OFF WAT
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts55% Vitesse
23% Draw
22% De
OUR PICK
Vitesse to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.05
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.83X4.3124.53
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.28
1X
78%
Season stats
VitesseDe Graafschap1.3Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game2.1
1.38Points per game1.15
38%Win rate31%
-1Goal difference-10
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Vitesse form
DWLWLA Jong Ajax1–1
A VVV Venlo0–2
H Emmen0–2
A FC Eindhoven0–1
A FC Volendam2–0
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Head to head
3
Vitesse
0
Draw
2
De
Mar 2026De Graafschap – Vitesse1–4
Dec 2025Vitesse – De Graafschap1–2
Feb 2025Vitesse – De Graafschap2–0
Sept 2024De Graafschap – Vitesse3–1
Oct 2019Vitesse – De Graafschap2–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Vitesse clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.79 for Vitesse, 1.05 for De Graafschap), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitesse sit 9th on 18 points; De Graafschap are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.