Over 1.5 goals@1.55
Over 1.5
65%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026
Vitória SC
13th · 9 pts19:00KICK-OFF WAT
FC Porto
1st · 30 pts14% Vitória
25% Draw
61% FC
OUR PICK
FC Porto to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.63
Expected goals
0.61 – 1.59
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.12X4.0421.63
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.61
Both scoreGG2.62NG1.57
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.57
NG
64%
Double chance@1.16
X2
86%
Season stats
Vitória SCFC Porto1.0Goals per game2.5
1.0Conceded per game0.4
0.90Points per game3.00
20%Win rate100%
0Goal difference21
5Form, last 5 (pts)15
Vitória SC form
DWWLWA GIL Vicente0–0
H Maritimo5–0
A Recreativa de Lamelas0–1
A Benfica2–0
A Chaves0–1
FC Porto form
WWWLLH Estoril4–0
H Academico Viseu1–0
A GIL Vicente0–1
H PSV Eindhoven0–1
A Real Betis3–2
Head to head
1
Vitória
1
Draw
3
FC
Jan 2026Vitória SC – FC Porto0–1
Dec 2025FC Porto – Vitória SC1–3
Aug 2025FC Porto – Vitória SC3–0
Feb 2025FC Porto – Vitória SC1–1
Sept 2024Vitória SC – FC Porto0–3
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica10+1925
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente10+115
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca10-111
Match preview
Our model makes FC Porto clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.61 for Vitória SC, 1.59 for FC Porto), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vitória SC sit 13th on 9 points; FC Porto are 1st on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.