Over 1.5 goals@1.03
Over 1.5
97%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal
19th · 3 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 9 pts29% Villarreal
17% Draw
55% Paris
OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
2.38 – 3.20
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.48X5.9821.83
Goals 2.5Over1.09Under10.48
Both scoreGG1.15NG7.26
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.09
Over 2.5
91%
Both teams to score@1.15
GG
87%
Double chance@1.20
12
83%
Season stats
VillarrealParis Saint Germain2.7Goals per game4.7
2.7Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game3.00
33%Win rate100%
0Goal difference9
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Villarreal form
No recent matches.
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Head to head
0
Villarreal
0
Draw
0
Paris
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain slight favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 5.6 goals in total (2.38 for Villarreal, 3.20 for Paris Saint Germain), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Villarreal sit 19th on 3 points; Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.