Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
95%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal
19th · 3 pts3–1FULL TIME
Napoli
22nd · 3 pts44% Villarreal
19% Draw
37% Napoli
OUR PICK
Villarreal to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
2.43 – 2.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X5.2422.71
Goals 2.5Over1.19Under5.90
Both scoreGG1.23NG4.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Over 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.23
GG
81%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
VillarrealNapoli2.7Goals per game1.7
2.7Conceded per game2.3
1.00Points per game1.00
33%Win rate33%
0Goal difference-2
3Form, last 5 (pts)3
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Napoli form
LWDWLA Juventus2–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Head to head
3
Villarreal
1
Draw
1
Napoli
Oct 2026Villarreal – Napoli3–1
Dec 2022Napoli – Villarreal2–3
Feb 2016Napoli – Villarreal1–1
Feb 2016Villarreal – Napoli1–0
Dec 2011Villarreal – Napoli0–2
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Villarreal 44%, the draw 19%, Napoli 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.7 goals in total (2.43 for Villarreal, 2.23 for Napoli), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Villarreal sit 19th on 3 points; Napoli are 22nd on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.