Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio de la Ceramica
Villarreal
9th · 12 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Getafe
13th · 12 pts55% Villarreal
26% Draw
19% Getafe
OUR PICK
Villarreal to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.78
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.81X3.8725.24
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.68
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.68
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
58%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
VillarrealGetafe1.4Goals per game0.7
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.09Points per game1.09
27%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-8
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Getafe form
WWLLDH Sevilla3–1
A Lebrijana2–3
A Athletic Club4–0
H FC Lugano2–5
H Rayo Vallecano1–1
Head to head
2
Villarreal
2
Draw
1
Getafe
Feb 2026Getafe – Villarreal2–1
Dec 2025Villarreal – Getafe2–0
Mar 2025Getafe – Villarreal1–2
Oct 2024Villarreal – Getafe1–1
Feb 2024Villarreal – Getafe1–1
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Villarreal clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.53 for Villarreal, 0.78 for Getafe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Villarreal sit 9th on 12 points; Getafe are 13th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.