Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 11Friday, 30 October 2026 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal
8th · 12 pts0–1FULL TIME
Espanyol
14th · 11 pts49% Villarreal
25% Draw
26% Espanyol
OUR PICK
Villarreal to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X4.0123.86
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
VillarrealEspanyol1.4Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game1.3
1.09Points per game1.00
27%Win rate27%
0Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Espanyol form
WLLLDA Villarreal0–1
A Sestao River4–3
A Racing Santander2–1
H Atletico Madrid0–1
A Malaga1–1
Head to head
4
Villarreal
0
Draw
1
Espanyol
Oct 2026Villarreal – Espanyol0–1
Feb 2026Villarreal – Espanyol4–1
Nov 2025Espanyol – Villarreal0–2
Apr 2025Villarreal – Espanyol1–0
Sept 2024Espanyol – Villarreal1–2
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Villarreal11012
9Celta Vigo11012
10Alaves11-212
Match preview
Our model makes Villarreal slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.60 for Villarreal, 1.09 for Espanyol), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Villarreal sit 8th on 12 points; Espanyol are 14th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.