Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
ESPLa Liga · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal
9th · 12 pts0–0FULL TIME
Elche
17th · 10 pts53% Villarreal
22% Draw
25% Elche
OUR PICK
Villarreal to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.27
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X4.5023.96
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
VillarrealElche1.4Goals per game1.3
1.4Conceded per game1.6
1.09Points per game0.91
27%Win rate18%
0Goal difference-4
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
Villarreal form
LWWLDH Espanyol0–1
A Manacor0–5
A Valencia1–2
A Liverpool4–3
H Elche0–0
Elche form
LWWDDH Valencia0–1
A Pinatar1–3
A Rayo Vallecano0–3
A Villarreal0–0
H Celta Vigo0–0
Head to head
3
Villarreal
1
Draw
1
Elche
Oct 2026Villarreal – Elche0–0
Mar 2026Villarreal – Elche2–1
Jan 2026Elche – Villarreal1–3
Feb 2023Elche – Villarreal3–1
Sept 2022Villarreal – Elche4–0
La Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Barcelona11+3430
2Atletico Madrid11+1428
3Real Madrid11+1827
4Real Betis11+323
5Real Sociedad11019
6Sevilla11-217
7Athletic Club10+415
8Deportivo La Coruna11+114
9Villarreal11012
10Celta Vigo11012
Match preview
Our model makes Villarreal slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.92 for Villarreal, 1.27 for Elche), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Villarreal sit 9th on 12 points; Elche are 17th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.