Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie B · Matchday 34Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Vila Nova
3rd · 63 pts2–2FULL TIME
Novorizontino
1st · 67 pts32% Vila
27% Draw
41% Novorizontino
OUR PICK
Novorizontino to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.36
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.13X3.7422.42
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
Vila NovaNovorizontino1.4Goals per game1.8
1.1Conceded per game0.9
1.75Points per game1.86
50%Win rate53%
14Goal difference33
6Form, last 5 (pts)13
Vila Nova form
DLDWDH Juventude2–2
A São Bernardo3–2
H Novorizontino2–2
A Nautico Recife0–2
H Cuiaba0–0
Novorizontino form
WWDWWH Operario-PR2–1
A Atletico Goianiense0–1
A Vila Nova2–2
H Ponte Preta5–1
A Nautico Recife0–2
Head to head
0
Vila
2
Draw
3
Novorizontino
Oct 2026Vila Nova – Novorizontino2–2
Jun 2026Novorizontino – Vila Nova2–1
Sept 2025Novorizontino – Vila Nova1–1
May 2025Vila Nova – Novorizontino0–1
Aug 2024Novorizontino – Vila Nova2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Vila Nova 32%, the draw 27%, Novorizontino 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.16 for Vila Nova, 1.36 for Novorizontino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vila Nova sit 3rd on 63 points; Novorizontino are 1st on 67.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.