Over 1.5 goals@1.65
Over 1.5
61%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Wednesday, 7 October 2026 · Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Vila Nova
3rd · 63 pts0–0FULL TIME
Cuiaba
13th · 47 pts46% Vila
29% Draw
24% Cuiaba
OUR PICK
Vila Nova to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X3.4024.13
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.51
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.65
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.65
NG
61%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Vila NovaCuiaba1.4Goals per game0.9
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.75Points per game1.31
50%Win rate31%
14Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
Vila Nova form
DLDWDH Juventude2–2
A São Bernardo3–2
H Novorizontino2–2
A Nautico Recife0–2
H Cuiaba0–0
Cuiaba form
LLLLDH São Bernardo1–2
A America Mineiro1–0
A Londrina1–0
H Avai0–1
A Vila Nova0–0
Head to head
0
Vila
2
Draw
3
Cuiaba
Oct 2026Vila Nova – Cuiaba0–0
Jun 2026Cuiaba – Vila Nova1–0
Sept 2025Vila Nova – Cuiaba2–2
May 2025Cuiaba – Vila Nova1–0
May 2024Cuiaba – Vila Nova4–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Vila Nova slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.24 for Vila Nova, 0.81 for Cuiaba), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vila Nova sit 3rd on 63 points; Cuiaba are 13th on 47.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.