Over 1.5 goals@1.65
Over 1.5
61%
BRASerie B · Matchday 37Friday, 6 November 2026
Vila Nova
3rd · 63 pts00:30KICK-OFF WAT
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts43% Vila
30% Draw
27% Criciuma
OUR PICK
Vila Nova to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.32
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.87
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.32X3.3523.70
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.51
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.67
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.67
NG
60%
Double chance@1.37
1X
73%
Season stats
Vila NovaCriciuma1.4Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game0.8
1.75Points per game1.72
50%Win rate50%
14Goal difference8
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Vila Nova form
DLDWDH Juventude2–2
A São Bernardo3–2
H Novorizontino2–2
A Nautico Recife0–2
H Cuiaba0–0
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
Head to head
0
Vila
2
Draw
3
Criciuma
Jul 2026Criciuma – Vila Nova2–0
Oct 2025Vila Nova – Criciuma1–1
Jun 2025Criciuma – Vila Nova1–0
Aug 2023Criciuma – Vila Nova1–0
May 2023Vila Nova – Criciuma0–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Vila Nova slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.18 for Vila Nova, 0.87 for Criciuma), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Vila Nova sit 3rd on 63 points; Criciuma are 4th on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.