Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · SR-Bank Arena
Viking
1st · 59 pts3–1FULL TIME
Tromso
6th · 40 pts68% Viking
18% Draw
15% Tromso
OUR PICK
Viking to win
Model probability 68% · fair odds
1.48
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.07
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.48X5.7026.78
Goals 2.5Over1.46Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.46
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
VikingTromso2.6Goals per game1.7
1.0Conceded per game1.5
2.36Points per game1.60
76%Win rate44%
38Goal difference5
12Form, last 5 (pts)5
Viking form
LWLWDA Bodo/Glimt3–2
H Tromso3–1
A Aston Villa3–1
H Fredrikstad3–2
H Bayern München3–3
Tromso form
LWLDDA Valerenga4–0
H Haugesund3–2
A Viking3–1
H KFUM Oslo1–1
A Fredrikstad1–1
Head to head
2
Viking
3
Draw
0
Tromso
Oct 2026Viking – Tromso3–1
Feb 2026Tromso – Viking1–1
Oct 2025Tromso – Viking1–3
Apr 2025Viking – Tromso4–4
Sept 2024Tromso – Viking2–2
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model makes Viking clear favourites, giving them a 68% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.46 for Viking, 1.07 for Tromso), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Viking sit 1st on 59 points; Tromso are 6th on 40.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.