Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
87%
NOREliteserien · Matchday 24Saturday, 17 October 2026 · SR-Bank Arena
Viking
1st · 59 pts3–2FULL TIME
Fredrikstad
11th · 29 pts81% Viking
13% Draw
7% Fredrikstad
OUR PICK
Viking to win
Model probability 81% · fair odds
1.24
Expected goals
2.81 – 0.71
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.24X7.90214.70
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.07
1X
93%
Season stats
VikingFredrikstad2.6Goals per game1.2
1.0Conceded per game1.8
2.36Points per game1.16
76%Win rate32%
38Goal difference-15
12Form, last 5 (pts)2
Viking form
LWLWDA Bodo/Glimt3–2
H Tromso3–1
A Aston Villa3–1
H Fredrikstad3–2
H Bayern München3–3
Fredrikstad form
LWLLDH Rosenborg0–3
A Ranheim2–5
A Molde5–1
A Viking3–2
H Tromso1–1
Head to head
5
Viking
0
Draw
0
Fredrikstad
Oct 2026Viking – Fredrikstad3–2
Apr 2026Fredrikstad – Viking1–2
Nov 2025Fredrikstad – Viking0–1
Jun 2025Viking – Fredrikstad3–0
Mar 2025Viking – Fredrikstad2–0
Eliteserien table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Viking25+3859
2Bodo/Glimt25+3859
3Molde25+2043
4Rosenborg25+1843
5Lillestrom25+342
6Tromso25+540
7Brann25+332
8Valerenga25-332
9Sarpsborg 08 FF25-731
10KFUM Oslo25-931
Match preview
Our model makes Viking clear favourites, giving them a 81% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.81 for Viking, 0.71 for Fredrikstad), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Viking sit 1st on 59 points; Fredrikstad are 11th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.