Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday, 7 November 2026 · MHPArena
VfB Stuttgart
11th · 9 pts18:30KICK-OFF WAT
Werder Bremen
5th · 15 pts41% VfB
21% Draw
38% Werder
OUR PICK
VfB Stuttgart to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.87
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.43X4.7122.66
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
73%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
VfB StuttgartWerder Bremen1.8Goals per game2.1
1.9Conceded per game1.8
1.13Points per game1.88
38%Win rate50%
-1Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
VfB Stuttgart form
WWLDLA Bayer Leverkusen2–4
A SC Paderborn 070–1
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
H Atletico Madrid1–1
A Hamburger SV1–0
Werder Bremen form
WLWDDH 1899 Hoffenheim2–0
A Borussia Dortmund3–2
A FSV Mainz 052–3
H SC Paderborn 072–2
A Borussia Dortmund2–2
Head to head
1
VfB
2
Draw
2
Werder
Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart – Werder Bremen1–1
Dec 2025Werder Bremen – VfB Stuttgart0–4
Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart – Werder Bremen1–2
Nov 2024Werder Bremen – VfB Stuttgart2–2
Apr 2024Werder Bremen – VfB Stuttgart2–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: VfB Stuttgart 41%, the draw 21%, Werder Bremen 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.96 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.87 for Werder Bremen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
VfB Stuttgart sit 11th on 9 points; Werder Bremen are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.