Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Friday, 23 October 2026 · MHP Arena
VfB Stuttgart
11th · 9 pts2–3FULL TIME
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 4 pts69% VfB
16% Draw
15% Borussia
OUR PICK
VfB Stuttgart to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.45
Expected goals
2.71 – 1.20
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.45X6.1426.83
Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.34
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach1.8Goals per game1.4
1.9Conceded per game2.8
1.13Points per game0.50
38%Win rate13%
-1Goal difference-11
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
VfB Stuttgart form
WWLDLA Bayer Leverkusen2–4
A SC Paderborn 070–1
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
H Atletico Madrid1–1
A Hamburger SV1–0
Borussia Mönchengladbach form
DWWLLH SC Paderborn 070–0
H Karlsruher SC2–0
A VfB Stuttgart2–3
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
A 1. FC Köln2–1
Head to head
3
VfB
0
Draw
2
Borussia
Oct 2026VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
Jan 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach – VfB Stuttgart0–3
Aug 2025VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0
Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2
Sept 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach – VfB Stuttgart1–3
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.71 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.20 for Borussia Mönchengladbach), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
VfB Stuttgart sit 11th on 9 points; Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.