Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · MHP Arena
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 7 pts1–1FULL TIME
Atletico Madrid
16th · 4 pts59% VfB
20% Draw
21% Atletico
OUR PICK
VfB Stuttgart to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.23
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.9424.80
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
VfB StuttgartAtletico Madrid2.3Goals per game1.3
0.7Conceded per game1.0
2.33Points per game1.33
67%Win rate33%
5Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
VfB Stuttgart form
WWLDLA Bayer Leverkusen2–4
A SC Paderborn 070–1
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
H Atletico Madrid1–1
A Hamburger SV1–0
Atletico Madrid form
WWDWWA Levante0–2
H Deportivo La Coruna1–0
A VfB Stuttgart1–1
A Espanyol0–1
H Manchester United2–0
Head to head
0
VfB
1
Draw
0
Atletico
Oct 2026VfB Stuttgart – Atletico Madrid1–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.18 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.23 for Atletico Madrid), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
VfB Stuttgart sit 6th on 7 points; Atletico Madrid are 16th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.